The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has emerged as the world’s largest single exporter of aviation fuel in April, thanks to supply disruptions triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, which have significantly boosted exports of refined petroleum products to international markets.
According to S&P Global, the development comes after the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery reached full operational capacity in February.
The expansion will also require a significant diversification of crude supply sources, with the refinery expected to process a broader range of feedstocks from Africa, the Middle East, the United States, and other producing regions, the report noted.
The report disclosed that the facility can refine up to 40 crude blends with plans to expand it to over 100.
After the Middle East war began, Dangote shifted to “max jet mode,” and in April it became the world’s single largest exporter of aviation fuel, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.
This is as Chief Executive Officer of the refinery, David Bird, told Platts that the expansion would further cement the refinery’s position as a major global refining hub and significantly deepen Nigeria’s role in international petroleum products trade.
Bird explained that within weeks of attaining full capacity, the refinery was able to respond swiftly to market shortages by increasing aviation fuel production, helping to fill supply gaps created by the conflict in the Middle East.
Sustaining current run rates demands another order of trading sophistication, testing the limits of Dangote’s logistics, said Bird, who left OQ8, owner of Oman’s Duqm refinery, in 2025 to become the company’s first CEO.
“This is not a traditional refinery in an oil-producing country that just sits on the end of a crude pipeline and processes one crude,” Bird said. “This is a fully merchant refining model that you could see in Europe or Asia,” he added.
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The refinery is also producing 200 per cent of its petrol potential by importing blending components like GTL naphtha and Bonny condensate, Bird said. As such, it can “comfortably” make 75 million litres/day (about 650,000 bod), and could do 100 million l/d with better storage infrastructure, he added.
According to the report, other projects would further diversify the feedstock coming into Dangote. In addition to a new linear alkylbenzene plant and diesel hydrotreater, the company is planning to build a new 750,000 metric tonne/year propane dehydrogenation plant, which will process imported LPG and convert it into polypropylene.
Although the Dangote model was designed to process the light sweet crude native to Nigeria, it has been challenged by what the refinery says is a lack of local supply and poor terminal reliability.
Dangote can now refine 40 different types of crude, but Bird would like to see the number get closer to the 130 used at Singapore’s Pulau Bukom refinery, which he ran between 2012 and 2015, he said.
S&P added that Dangote’s “$10 billion expansion project” will make the refinery capable of processing 1.4 million bpd, equivalent to 90 per cent of Nigeria’s oil output, forcing it to seek new crude streams.
It has so far relied on US WTI Midland crude to supplement local supply, but as it scales up, it can incorporate heavier grades and residues, Bird said. “We will be in the crude blending game,” he said. “So you can easily imagine at 1.4 million bpd we could process 30 per cent Middle Eastern grades on each train,” he explained.
The refinery currently ships half of its production overseas and plans to export all additional products from its expansion to international markets, Edwin said in a separate interview at the site.
“We normally try to avoid stocks in all of the businesses,” Edwin told S&P, explaining a wider Dangote Group ethos of forcing salespersons to move product. However, limited tankage space leaves little margin for error for operators facing “a tsunami of product coming down the pipe every day” and unpredictable truck demand, Bird said.
Consequently, the business is shifting from its existing spot model, managed primarily by international trading companies, to pursue longer-term purchasing commitments from governments, distributors, and national oil companies.
“We’ll be making sure that we’re not the supplier of last resort,” Bird said. “We want to start building some of those direct offtake relationships,” he pointed out.
Besides, Bird noted that Dangote has had an influx of requests from African countries and a recent deal with Ethiopian Airlines. In contrast to its early years, the refinery is better positioned to offer competitive credit and payment terms, he added.
The company is also tailoring its port infrastructure to support smaller cargoes and reduce dependence on truck-outs. After hitting constraints with its single-point mooring system, it is developing a four-berth marine jetty to accommodate LR2-size ships and below, Bird stated.
