Nigerian crude oil producers supplied local refineries with less than half of the volumes allocated under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) rules in the first quarter of 2026, according to regulator data.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), in its latest statistics on the enforcement of the DCSO, noted that actual crude deliveries to Dangote and other domestic refineries plunged to just 28.5 million barrels in Q1 2026, despite 61.9 million barrels allocated and 68.7 million barrels offered by producers.
The Commission is blaming the shortfall largely on pricing gaps between producers and local refiners.
The DCSO is issued in accordance with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
The actual supply of 28.5 million barrels is equivalent to about 46% of allocated volumes and around 41% of volumes offered.
Month-on-month data reveal that in January, the Commission mandated the supply of 22.6 million barrels following consultations with stakeholders, with producers exceeding the target by offering 25.3 million barrels—an increase of 11.9 per cent—though only 9.2 million barrels were eventually delivered.
In February, allocations stood at 20.5 million barrels, while producers offered slightly lower volumes of 19.8 million barrels, missing the target by 700,000 barrels, with actual supply declining to 9.1 million barrels.
By March, deliveries improved modestly to 10.1 million barrels, compared to 9.2 million barrels in January and 9.1 million barrels in February, even as allocations were set at 18.8 million barrels and producers offered a significantly higher 23.6 million barrels, exceeding the requirement by 4.8 million barrels, or 25.5 per cent.
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The figures highlight continuing challenges in Nigeria’s push to increase local refining and reduce reliance on imported fuels, despite reforms under the PIA aimed at improving domestic crude availability.
The shortfall has underscored concerns raised by the Dangote refinery over unreliable domestic crude supply and pricing disagreements, analysts said, constraining output at the Refinery and weakening Nigeria’s push to capture more value from its oil production.
The regulator attributed the gap between offered volumes and actual deliveries mainly to pricing differences between crude producers and domestic refiners.
It said transactions continue to operate on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis.
