An economist, Paul Alaje, has warned that petrol prices in Nigeria could climb to about ₦1,000 per litre if the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is not effectively managed.
Alaje, who is the Chief Economist at SPM Professionals, stated this on Monday while appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today, against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to him, increases in crude oil prices typically translate into higher costs for refined petroleum products such as petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, with broad implications for businesses and households.
“While crude oil goes up, we all need to check the impact on our economy. The first thing you see is high inflation, because as crude oil goes up, the cost of PMS, diesel, and Jet-A1 will also follow.
“As that is going on, about nine per cent has already attracted more cost for PMS in Nigeria, and by the end of April, we project that if the war is not properly managed, it might get to ₦1,000 plus for PMS in Nigeria.
“If PMS is ₦1,000, you can imagine what diesel will be; you can imagine what flight tickets will be. It will affect the poor, the middle class and, of course, the rich,” the economist said.
He added that sustained increases in fuel prices would raise production costs for manufacturers and push up the prices of goods in the short, medium and long term.
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‘Nigeria Could Benefit’
Alaje further explained that rising crude oil prices could initially benefit Nigeria through higher export earnings, noting that oil-dependent economies often see revenue increases during global supply shocks.
“The America–Israel war and Iran have far-reaching effects. The first effect for Nigeria is going to be positive. What does that mean — crude oil prices are significantly going up.
“We project that before the end of the month, if the war continues as mentioned by President Trump, we might see oil prices go to what we saw during President Jonathan’s regime—more money for Nigeria—because the world cannot suddenly change all equipment that relies on by-products of crude overnight,” he said.
However, Alaje cautioned that the gains could be offset by domestic economic pressures, particularly inflation driven by higher energy costs.
Meanwhile, petrol prices have reportedly already risen across the country.
Conflict
The warning comes amid an escalation in hostilities in the Middle East.
After failed nuclear negotiations in February 2026, the conflict escalated when the US and Israel launched a joint offensive, Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) and Roaring Lion (Israel).
The strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials, with President Donald Trump stating the campaign’s goal is to dismantle Iran’s security infrastructure and prevent its nuclear development.
Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel and US bases across the Gulf, while Hezbollah has attacked Israel from Lebanon.
Hundreds of civilian casualties are reported, amid global protests and growing humanitarian concerns.
This war follows a history of escalating tensions, including the 2025 “Twelve-Day War,” the “Maximum Pressure 2.0” sanctions campaign, and widespread anti-regime protests in Iran that prompted violent crackdowns.
