Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, has said that Nigeria can increase oil production by about 100,000 barrels per day over the next few months.
Bayo Ojulari told Reuters on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, when asked if Nigeria could help make up for the crude shortfall resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
The country averaged about 1.6 million to 1.7 million barrels per day last year and is hoping to average 1.8 million bpd this year,
“We are building that capacity,” he said, though he added, “We are not like Saudi Arabia,” referring to the top OPEC member. “But we can contribute.”
During an onstage interview at the conference, Bayo Ojulari said NNPC completed a full portfolio review of its business last year and is beginning to implement changes this year.
One focus is working to improve execution and ensuring projects are delivered on budget and on time, after previous delays, he said.
His comments followed the country recording a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in January and February of 2026, according to an analysis of data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
According to the data, Nigeria produced a total of 50.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in January, while output declined notably in February, with total production dropping to approximately 41.6 million barrels, bringing cumulative output for the two months to 92 million barrels.
Based on the government’s benchmark in the 2026 budget, the country was expected to produce about 57 million barrels in January and 51.5 million barrels in February, to reach about 108.6 million barrels for the period.
The daily production averages provided in the NUPRC report further illustrated the extent of the gap. In January, total liquids output, according to the data, averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, falling short of the 1.84 million barrels per day target by roughly 210,000 barrels per day.
In the same vein, in February, the shortfall widened significantly, with production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of around 360,000 barrels per day.
According to the report, over the course of the two months, the daily deficits accumulated into the overall shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels, reinforcing the scale of Nigeria’s underperformance relative to its fiscal assumptions.
Crude oil production remained the dominant component of Nigeria’s output in the period under review. In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million bpd, before declining to roughly 1.31 million barrels per day in February, dragging down overall output for the month.
On the other hand, condensate production, while significantly smaller in volume, provided some support to total output. It averaged just over 116,000 barrels per day in January and about 122,000 barrels per day in February.
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The production gap is coming at a period when global oil prices have shown signs of strength, offering oil-producing countries an opportunity to boost earnings. Higher prices typically allow producers to maximise revenue, particularly when supported by increased output volumes.
Brent crude oil jumped back above $100 a barrel on Tuesday, a day after plunging more than 10 per cent in reaction to Donald Trump’s decision to delay fresh strikes on Iran as he hailed “very good” talks with Tehran.
Brent rose 2.9 per cent to $102.84, while West Texas Intermediate jumped 3.5 per cent to $91.20.
Trump’s comments sparked a sharp reversal on markets, with crude prices sinking as much as 14 per cent after rising around one per cent earlier on Monday.
Around 1145 GMT, international benchmark Brent North Sea crude was down 6.7 per cent at $104.70 per barrel.
The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, slumped 6.9 per cent to $91.41 per barrel, having earlier topped $100.
