Former presidential adviser to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on political matters, Dr Hakeem Baba Ahmed, has warned that Nigeria’s political elite are misjudging public sentiment, insisting that elite consensus without tangible performance will not guarantee victory at the polls.
Speaking on ARISE News on Thursday, Baba Ahmed criticised what he described as an overreliance on political defections, elite alignments and backroom agreements ahead of the 2027 general elections.
“They think that if they corner all the politicians on their side, they will win this election in 2027. And they’re making a terrible strategic mistake. You can pocket every politician in this country and still lose an election, because they are not performing well,” he said.
Baba Ahmed argued that voter expectations are shifting and that Nigerians are increasingly focused on governance outcomes rather than political manoeuvring.
On opposition politics, he said Labour Party candidate Peter Obi would struggle to emerge through a conventional party process, particularly if he faces former Vice President Atiku Abubakar at a party convention.
“If you go through the conventional process of bringing out a candidate for a party, and that’s the convention, not an anointing, not a handover, surrender to the ticket, Peter Obi is likely to lose,” he said.
He added that Atiku holds a structural advantage within party politics.
“Vice President Atiku is head and shoulders better than all the other candidates in terms of emerging through the convention,” Baba Ahmed said, noting that “he understands the mechanics of internal democratic politics, I think, better than the others.”
He also warned against political threats and ultimatums during internal party contests.
“Things like, if I don’t get a ticket, I don’t stay… I think those things don’t have a place in the democratic process,” he said.
Turning to the African Democratic Congress, Baba Ahmed said the most impactful step the party could take ahead of 2027 would be for Atiku Abubakar to decide not to contest.
“The most important thing that ADC can do, and the single most important commitment that Vice President Atiku Abubakar can make to this country, is to decide not to run,” he said.
According to him, such a decision would significantly alter public perception of the opposition.
“You’ve got to do something that is so dramatically outside the box that Nigerians can sit up and say, ah, these are not just another recycled politicians,” he added.
While describing ADC as being in a strong position, Baba Ahmed said the party has failed to clearly articulate what it would do with power.
“ADC is in the strong ground. But what ADC is not doing, it’s not playing its card right. What would you do with power?” he asked.
Assuming Atiku steps aside, Baba Ahmed said several figures could compete for the ADC ticket, including Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir El Rufai.
“There are quite a number of Nigerians who have fairly credible records of having held power and quite possibly could offer leadership,” he said.
He argued that Obi could present a strong challenge to the governing APC.
“Our best hope, for instance, is to say, why don’t we produce an Igbo president, Obi with us?” he said.
According to Baba Ahmed, combining Obi’s popularity in the Southeast with his electoral performance in the North could be decisive.
“If we combine his huge popularity with the Southeast and the huge number of votes that he got in the north… it will certainly be the catalyst for the defeat of the APC,” he said.
On Amaechi, he pointed to a political limitation.
“His drawback would be that he was so closely aligned with Buhari,” he said.
Baba Ahmed also criticised comments attributed to APC leaders suggesting that only party loyalists should occupy government positions.
“How do you run a country made up entirely of politicians?” he asked.
He argued that political loyalty should not override competence.
“Having a technocrat in government in itself, it’s not necessarily a guarantee that they would use you,” he said.
On the performance of the APC led federal government, Baba Ahmed said dissatisfaction is spreading across the country, particularly in the North.
“They are not just in trouble in the North. They are in trouble everywhere,” he said.
He described Vice President Kashim Shettima as underutilised.
“Kashim Shettima is an excellent man. One of the most intelligent people I knew and worked with,” Baba Ahmed said, adding that “he was marginalized. He has been made virtually redundant.”
He also said the Muslim-Muslim ticket has failed to deliver the expected political outcomes.
“Actually, the truth was that the Muslim Muslim ticket has not worked for the Muslims,” he said.
Baba Ahmed dismissed routine press statements from opposition figures as insufficient, arguing that Nigerians are demanding concrete policy alternatives.
“Releasing press statements every once in a while when something happens is not defining what you’re going to do with the country,” he said.
He added that opposition parties have failed to present clear policy documents.
“They haven’t seen a single document. Manifesto, policy statement, not press releases, for goodness sake,” he said.
On insecurity and poverty, Baba Ahmed questioned the absence of specific solutions.
“What is the ADC going to do in specific towns that differs radically from what APC is doing and looks likely to be a solution?” he asked.
“Take the issue of poverty. It is a very, very serious issue. What are you going to do about it?” he added.
He concluded with a blunt assessment of Nigeria’s political landscape.
“So who’s looking after the country? No one. Not the government, not the opposition,” Baba Ahmed said.
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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