Profits from rising oil and gas prices for developing world producers, including Nigeria, are likely to be short-lived, the head of the United Nations trade agency said on Tuesday.
The warning followed rising concerns over the negative aftermath of the ongoing Iran war, which has led to higher shipping costs due to closure of the Hormuz Straits.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the International Trade Centre (ITC), told Reuters during an interview that oil and gas could be secured from other places, so the situation was “not as dire” even if price hikes were a problem.
The ITC said countries such as Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, and Libya may benefit from increased oil revenues, but these gains would be limited as all but Kazakhstan remained net importers of refined products.
Higher natural gas prices may benefit countries such as Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, but expansion of supply is likely to be limited in the short term, the ITC said.
Nigeria is one of the oil-producing countries currently reaping the gains of higher oil and gas prices in the international market as a result of the war.
Oil prices surged on Monday after US-Iran peace talks fell apart and President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, adding to fears of energy supplies from the Middle East.
Oil prices — which tumbled last week after the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire — jumped around eight per cent Monday, with both contracts topping $100 a barrel, before sliding downward. Prices dropped on Tuesday, extending a sell-off that saw West Texas Intermediate dive around eight per cent and Brent more than four per cent.
The Federal Government had projected a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel in its 2026 budget.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 per cent, and also warned that higher oil and gas prices would be offset by higher shipping costs due to the war.
The revision was announced at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials warned that war-related energy and supply shocks are undercutting recovery across the region.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the downgrade reflects broader pressures facing energy-importing countries.
“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Gourinchas noted.
“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly — for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers.”
He added that the Fund is “following with a number of countries what their needs may be in the current environment” and coordinating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank on energy market disruptions.
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Speaking further, the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, Denz Igan, said the 0.3 percentage point cut reflects competing pressures.
“War-related higher fuel and fertilizer prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” Igan said. “There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027.”
