Eight members of OPEC+ agreed to the increase in May quotas at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.
Output quotas will be increased by 206,000 barrels per day.
The modest rise will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to increase production due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
A separate OPEC+ panel, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, also met on Sunday and expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply, according to the statement.
Iran said on Saturday that Iraq was free from any restrictions to transit Hormuz, and shipping data on Sunday showed a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the strait. Still, it remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved, a source close to the issue said.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil route – since the end of February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, the only countries in the group that were able to significantly raise production even before the conflict began.
Crude prices have surged to a four-year high close to $120 a barrel, translating into soaring prices for transport fuels, which are pressuring consumers and businesses across the globe, and triggering government action to conserve supplies.
The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 bpd represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others, such as Russia, are unable to increase output, in Moscow’s case, due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine.
May’s OPEC+ increase is the same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the war began to disrupt oil flows.
A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15% of global supply.
Oil prices could spike above $150 – an all-time high – if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, JPMorgan said on Thursday.
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OPEC+ groups 22 members, including Iran. In recent years, only the eight countries meeting on Sunday have been involved in monthly production decisions, and they started in 2025 to unwind previously agreed output cuts to regain market share.
The eight raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to March 2026.
The eight hold their next meeting on May 3.
Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from missile and drone attacks has been severe. Several Gulf officials have said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately.
