Billionaire businessman and Chairman of First HoldCo, Femi Otedola, has projected that the naira could strengthen to below N1,000 against the US dollar before the end of 2026.
Otedola made the projection in a post on his verified X handle on Thursday, attributing the anticipated appreciation to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full production capacity.
According to him, the refinery’s ramp-up to its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day marks a major turning point for Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook, particularly in stabilising the foreign exchange market.
“I congratulate my friend and brother, @AlikoDangote, on the remarkable achievement of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching its full 650,000 barrels per day capacity,” he wrote.
“More importantly, it is transformational for Nigeria and Africa. Supplying up to 75 million litres of PMS daily changes our energy narrative and conserving foreign exchangez
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly. I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach.
“Aliko is not stopping here. He has embarked on an additional $12 billion expansion to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, alongside 2.4 million tons of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tons of Linear Alkyl Benzene for detergent production. Work has already commenced in earnest.
“Congratulations once again, my brother. Nigeria is proud of you … F.Ote.”
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The naira has come under sustained pressure in recent years due to high import demand and persistent dollar shortages.
Otedola noted that the refinery’s capacity to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily would significantly reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, one of the country’s largest sources of foreign exchange demand.
He expressed optimism that with reduced pressure on the country’s foreign reserves, the local currency would gain strength in the medium term.
Last year, Dangote oil refinery, already the largest in Africa, aimed to become the biggest in the world in three years with an expansion doubling its capacity.
“We are more than doubling the barrels (per day)… to 1.4 million from 650,000,” said Aliko Dangote, a Nigerian businessman who is Africa’s richest person.
“This will make it the largest refinery globally,” surpassing India’s Jamnagar Refinery, he told a news conference in Lagos.
The privately run Dangote refinery, which started operations in 2024, is a game-changer for Nigeria, which previously had to import almost all its petrol despite being a major oil producer.
After years of neglect and mismanagement of public refineries, Dangote has shaken up the corruption-marred players in Nigeria and driven down the prices of petrol for consumers.
“This expansion reflects our confidence in Nigeria’s future, our belief in Africa’s potential and our commitment to building energy independence for our continent,” and reduce import dependence,” Dangote said, adding there was “quite a lot of demand” from West Africa and East Africa.
Dangote also exports aviation fuel, mainly to the United States, Europe, and Brazil.
The Dangote refinery, which has sparked monopoly fears as it becomes a powerful player itself, plans to list on the Nigerian Stock Exchange next year.
“That is a step towards broader ownership and market transparency,” said Dangote.
A second privately owned refinery, BUA, is under construction by another Nigerian billionaire, Abdulsamad Rabiu.
