In what seems to be a strategic move against Northern opposition to his 2027 re-election bid, President Bola Tinubu is shifting his focus southward to forge and consolidate a strong, impenetrable support base.
Naija News reports that a key political event recently unfolded in Delta State, where Governor Sheriff Francis Orohwedor Oborevwori, a sitting Governor elected on the platform of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), made a dramatic defection to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Not only did Oborevwori join the APC, but he also brought the entire structure of his former party into the fold.
This bold political shift in the South, coupled with an increasing number of endorsements from Southern Governors and some political leaders from the Middle Belt, sends a clear signal of Tinubu’s commitment to securing a strong foothold in these regions.
The political significance of these developments is immense. The endorsements and defections indicate a deliberate effort by President Tinubu to counterbalance the challenge he faces in the North, particularly regarding his re-election bid.
One APC leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Daily Sun: “I wouldn’t want to say that PBAT is calling the bluff of the North but I can confidently tell you that what is happening is an aggressive rallying of Southern and Middle Belt political leaders for his second term.”
This statement underscores the extent to which President Tinubu is engaging with the Southern and Middle Belt political leaders, working to rally their support.
Forming a Pan-Southern and Middle Belt Front
Political analysts suggest that, while President Tinubu is consolidating power in the South and Middle Belt, he may also be inadvertently shaking up the political establishment in these regions.
His efforts are aimed at rallying governors, National Assembly members, and other key political figures across party lines in the South and Middle Belt to back his second-term bid.
According to a source involved in the political reshuffling: “The President’s foot soldiers have been fanned across the Southern and Middle Belt political spectrum charged with impressing on governors, National Assembly members, and political leaders across party lines in the two regions, the imperativeness of regional cohesion and solidarity as regard retaining the presidency in the South for eight years.”
The primary argument being advanced is that a defeat for President Tinubu in 2027 would not only break the unwritten North-South rotational Presidency principle but could also deal a psychological blow to the South.
This, in turn, would strengthen the perception among some Northern political elites that their region holds the ultimate sway over Nigeria’s presidential succession.
A notable example of this sentiment is Dr. Hakem Baba Ahmed, who, after resigning as Special Adviser on Political Matters to President Tinubu, declared: “In the next six months, the north will decide where it stands. If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. One thing is clear: Nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support.”
This boast mirrors past political events, such as the 2015 presidential elections, when several Northern PDP governors aligned with the then-emerging APC to overthrow President Goodluck Jonathan.
It is believed that this historical context influenced Tinubu’s decision to woo Governor Oborevwori, marking a pivotal moment in the realignment of regional politics.
The Significance of Governor Oborevwori’s Defection
The defection of Governor Oborevwori to the APC is particularly telling. Delta State, a state that has been a stronghold of the PDP since 1999, is now teetering on the edge of a political realignment.
Oborevwori’s defection is seen as part of a broader effort by Tinubu to win over key Southern and Middle Belt figures.
Oborevwori is believed to have the support of former Delta State Governor, Chief James Ibori, a PDP stalwart with significant influence in the South-South region.
Sources suggest that Ibori, a close ally of President Tinubu, may also be planning his defection to the APC in a highly publicized move.
Ibori’s support is crucial as he is regarded as a key political figure in the region, and his move to the APC would solidify the party’s foothold in the South-South.
Southern Governors’ Endorsements
The endorsement from Southern Governors for President Tinubu’s re-election bid is also noteworthy. Governors like Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State and Pastor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom have publicly pledged their support for his second term.
During a flag-off ceremony of a 65-km road construction in Akwa Ibom, Governor Eno assured President Tinubu: “Let me end by assuring our President (Tinubu), our people-loving President, he will complete eight years because we are going to stand by him.”
Governor Soludo, in his own remarks, described President Tinubu as a national treasure, emphasizing his inclusive governance approach.
“The president’s inclusive approach to governance and willingness to partner with subnational entities for national progress reflect his belief in a Nigeria that works for all,” Soludo had said in a glowing 73rd birthday message to President Tinubu.
Political Reactions to Tinubu’s Strategy
A political analyst, Dr. Markus Oteri, weighs in on President Tinubu’s approach, arguing that it’s a direct response to what he describes as the “sickening arrogance” of certain Northern politicians.
“What the president is doing is a perfect response to the sickening arrogance of some Northern politicians who behave as if the country belongs to them alone,” he noted.
Oteri further suggests that if Tinubu chooses a Northern Christian as his vice-presidential running mate, he could replicate the success of the 2011 elections, when President Jonathan secured overwhelming support from the South despite the North’s opposition.
“Let’s remember that in the 2011 presidential election, the whole of the so-called core North ganged up against President Jonathan and instead cast their lot with one of their own, Buhari, in fact Jonathan lost woefully to Buhari in all the core Muslim Northern states but won overwhelmingly in the entire Southern Nigeria and in the minority Northern Christian communities and also in the Middle Belt states. And that was how President Jonathan massively won the 2011 presidential election. This feat will be seamless and less laborious for Tinubu if only he can pair with a Christian running mate in 2027,” Oteri told Daily Sun.
Middle Belt Demands and Realignment
The Middle Belt, also known as the North-Central, is making its own demands, particularly with regard to the Vice-Presidential slot.
The argument is that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might alienate the Northern Christian vote and undermine support from the region.
According to sources within the Middle Belt, Tinubu is being urged to pick a running mate from the region to solidify his alliance with the South and Middle Belt.
If this happens, there would likely be a reorganization of positions, with the South-South expected to take over the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) role, and the South-East likely to assume the Senate Presidency.
Opposition Reactions
The defection of Governor Oborevwori has drawn sharp reactions from the opposition, with the PDP’s Acting National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum, calling it “sad” but expressing confidence that the party would overcome the setback.
His words, “This is a party that has seen more than this and is still standing. Let me remind us all – Peter Obi had no governor behind him in 2023, but he still garnered millions of votes. The 2027 election is not about how many governors or so-called leaders a party has. It is about President Tinubu and the condition of Nigerians. This election will be APC versus Nigerians.”
A former APC spokesperson, Timi Frank, has accused President Tinubu of using blackmail and threats to ensure his re-election in 2027.
He said “While Tinubu is on one hand blackmailing Southerners, especially opposition governors on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) by playing the ethnic card to gain support, he is on the other hand threatening to deal with them if they fail to support him by declaring a state of emergency in their states over spurious charges of violence and corruption.”
The Poaching of Opposition Governors
Political strategist Samuel O. Ajayi observes that while President Tinubu’s tactics of poaching opposition governors are not new, there is a cautionary note about the long-term consequences.
He said, “We have travelled this road before. As 2003 approached, Obasanjo poached practically every governor on the ANPP platform. From 20 states in 1999, PDP had 28 in 2003. At the end of the day, the PDP became a victim of its own success.”
Ajayi concludes with a reminder that while Tinubu may win the political battle, the aftermath may not be as easy to navigate.
“The desperation to capture the South is to make up for the expected shortfall from the North. Tinubu won the 2023 election with the lowest presidential vote tally since 1979! He had 36.6 percent of the votes having garnered 8.8million of a total of 23.5m votes. No presidential candidate had had such low result and still emerged winner. Jonathan had almost 13.7m votes in 2015 and still lost. Out of the three geopolitical zones in the South, Tinubu won only the South-West.
“The sharing of the votes between Obi and Atiku gave Tinubu the victory. This time around, he wants to secure the South ahead of whatever the North is cooking.
“Unfortunately, with combination of subterfuge, threat and fear on the part of three or four key South-South states, they are moving to join him just to secure their second term. They will win the political war but might not enjoy the peace of victory,” Ajayi noted.
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